Reports of waning popularity for unrestricted autobahns prompts Simon Hacker to ask if 2016 could be the year the world slows down.

1 It’s official: we’re slowing down. Sort of. Scientists have worked out that the tidal pull on our oceans, thanks to the moon, is making our earth days longer. It’s not something we’re that likely to notice: just 1.4 thousandths of a second per hundred years, but nevertheless, and in the spirit of deceleration, this trend seems to be trickling through to the world’s roads. In Germany, that bastion of maximum velocity motoring, where some 60 per cent of the autobahn network is limit-free, a four-year trial for a 75mph limit is due to be piloted in May. And the initiative, in Baden-Württemberg, has provoked bilious reaction among petrolhead campaigners worldwide.

2 The move does tend to strike at the global heart of the pro-speed community. After all, Germany invented motorways and it was here that the world speed record for a public highway was set, by Rudolf Caracciola in 1938. At 268mph, in case you didn’t know. There is also some industrial might behind the dissent against Minister Winfried “Winne” Hermann’s spoil-sport legislation: Mercedes-Benz, Porsche and Bosch are among the iconic brands who believe Germany’s foot-down culture has been crucial to the development of their brands. Glaubwürdigkeit durch Geschwindigkeit as the German’s would say, which translates to ‘credibility through speed’. Amazingly, given his unpopular status, Herr Hermann gets about on a bicycle.

3 There is, of course, a mountain of academic research to prove the value of tighter legislation. But opposition is vociferous and well organised. Furthermore, it is, in all objectivity, practically impossible to isolate speed from other elements of road safety. True, we have seen death statistics on UK motorways since the 70mph limit was enforced come down to 7.7 per cent of what they were, but identifying how much that drop is specifically attributable to reduced speed is virtually impossible among such variables as better brakes, airbag technology and motorway safety measures.

4 It’s not just Germany: new lower speed limits are being drawn up on Dublin’s motorway feeds, Mexico has just introduced a blanket 75mph limit on ‘unmarked’ roads (yes, their tourist office doesn’t brag about this), and – a victory for rabid bike haters everywhere – EU regulations on the manufacture and sale of electric bikes will nobble all designs to a churlish maximum of 15.5mph, though that’s half a mile per hour faster than hoverboard owners are allowed to progress, under upcoming legislation in California, USA.

5 Back here though, the big story for the coming year will mostly focus on 20mph limits. From Brighton to Bristol, debate rages as to the benefits of this new urban limit, while districts such as South Shields, Shropshire and Bedfordshire are poised to make the change. It’s a piecemeal process and critics are quick to point out that policing of most 20 zones is often negligible (Blackpool’s scheme cost £9m and campaigners say it is money wasted unless cameras enforce it). Furthermore, monitoring in Bristol suggests actual traffic speed has come down by just 1mph, to 23mph on average. Like it or not though, 20 will soon be the new 30 about town. And let’s not forget the 2008 report which estimated that, following the introduction of the first 20mph zones in London, a reduction of casualties by 45 per cent and killed or seriously injured by 57 per cent occurred.

6 Will Germany lead the way in surrendering its world-famous lack of a limit? The answer depends on which side of the steering wheel the respondent is sitting. Some 56 per cent of Germans apparently support a new parity with France’s 130kph limit, but only 11 per cent would go so slow as Britain. Germany would no doubt like to match our far lower tally of road deaths (1,770 at the last count), but critics of a cut are quick to point out USA’s experience: in the land of the free, as long as you don’t usually venture over 55mph, the average figure for annual deaths remains above 30,000.